SeatWatch: Scottish Parliament 2026
Pre-election projection
Final poll-driven projection (5 May 2026), two days before polls opened. See the final results for what actually happened.
Projected seats — 129 total
Majority requires 65.
SNP 61
Reform UK 20
Labour 19
Grn 13
LD 9
Con 7
Majority (65)
| Party | Constituency | List | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 61 | 0 | 61 |
| Reform UK | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| Labour | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| Green | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| Lib Dem | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Conservative | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Projected national vote share
Scotland-wide shares on each ballot. Constituencies elect 73 MSPs by first-past-the-post; the regional list elects the remaining 56 via D'Hondt.
Constituency ballot
SNP
38.1%
Lab
19.9%
Ref
15.8%
Con
11.8%
LD
10.7%
Grn
3.9%
Oth
1.6%
Regional list ballot
SNP
28.4%
Ref
18.5%
Lab
17.6%
Grn
13.6%
Con
11.1%
LD
10.0%
Oth
2.9%
Alba
0.3%
Constituencies (73)
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Click a constituency to pin its projection here.
Regions (8)
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Click a region to pin its projection here.
Too close to call
Constituencies where the projected margin is less than 5 percentage points.
Aberdeenshire West
Too close to call
(1.0 pts margin)
SNP
32.0%
Con
31.0%
Ref
20.0%
LD
10.0%
Lab
7.0%
Dumbarton
Too close to call
(1.0 pts margin)
Lab
37.0%
SNP
36.0%
Ref
14.0%
Oth
5.0%
Con
4.0%
LD
4.0%
Eastwood
Too close to call
(1.0 pts margin)
Con
30.3%
SNP
29.3%
Lab
16.2%
Ref
16.2%
LD
8.1%
Edinburgh Southern
Too close to call
(2.0 pts margin)
SNP
33.7%
Lab
31.7%
LD
10.9%
Ref
10.9%
Oth
6.9%
Con
5.9%
Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill
Too close to call
(3.0 pts margin)
Grn
31.7%
SNP
28.7%
Lab
16.8%
Ref
9.9%
LD
6.9%
Con
4.0%
Oth
2.0%
Dumfriesshire
Too close to call
(4.0 pts margin)
SNP
31.3%
Ref
27.3%
Con
25.3%
Lab
6.1%
LD
5.1%
Oth
5.1%
Strathkelvin and Bearsden
Too close to call
(4.0 pts margin)
LD
36.0%
SNP
32.0%
Ref
15.0%
Lab
11.0%
Con
6.0%